Due to the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the NHL elected for temporary divisional realignment for the 2021 season. One of the biggest reasons for this change is the inability to travel across the United States-Canada border. The seven Canadian Teams will form the North division and play each opponent nine or ten times, forming their respective 56-game schedules.
In this preview I will rank the teams based on where I expect each to finish in the division, followed by a brief analysis and introduction of a player to watch on each team.
7. Ottawa Senators
The rebuild in the nation’s capital seems to be turning the corner, and the future is bright for the Senators. This year, however, won’t be the year they break back into the postseason.
I like the offseason moves to bring in some veteran pieces to compliment their young core. Derek Stepan should serve as a nice mentor for Brady Tkachuk and Colin White, who look to be the future of their forward group. Evgeni Dadonov will provide a nice offensive boost to the second line, and should fit in nicely on the power play. Cédric Paquette, who came over in a trade from Tampa Bay, adds depth to the center position as well as a gritty player to kill penalties and establish a forecheck, and Matt Murray gives them a solid starter in the crease.
The teardown is over in Ottawa, but building from the ground up takes time. This team will play more competitive games this year compared to last, but I still expect them to lose more games than they win- especially in a division with six teams who made it to the Stanley Cup Qualifiers last summer.
Player to watch: Thomas Chabot
Chabot is already an elite defenseman in the NHL but, at only 23, I think he is going to continue to get better. He logs big minutes, is a great skater, and looks to have good offensive instincts. I would expect him to be in the race for the Norris Trophy (best defenseman) for many years to come, especially as the team around him continues to improve.
6. Winnipeg Jets
Once you get past the Senators, there is a great deal of parity in the middle of this division. The Jets have one of the best goaltenders in the NHL in Connor Hellebuyck, who could win a Vezina Trophy (best goaltender) in any given season. Mark Scheifele is one of the most underrated players in the league, and he plays in a top-6 forward group that is up there with the most talented you will find. The defense, outside of Josh Morrissey, who is excellent, and Neal Pionk, who was very good last year, lacks depth and will likely be the downfall of the team this season.
The salary cap, and having so much talent up front, will make it quite difficult for this Jets team to compete for a Stanley Cup as currently constructed. Some tough roster decisions may come into play in the near future, and rightfully so, if the franchise wants to avoid falling further down the totem pole.
Player to Watch: Patrik Laine
Laine was drafted 2nd overall in the 2016 NHL draft, and was compared to Alex Ovechkin for his elite scoring potential. After four seasons in Winnipeg, and scoring 138 goals over that span, rumors have been swirling that he could be on the move. While his overall numbers have not been bad at all, he has seemed inconsistent, and frankly underwhelming at times. The Jets elected to sign Nikolaj Ehlers and Kyle Connor long-term on the wings and, as I mentioned, Winnipeg is tight against the cap. Not having Laine under a long-term deal makes him the most likely to go, and his performance this season could determine the future of the Jets, even though I doubt he will be part of it.
5. Edmonton Oilers
It is hard to say the team with the two best players in the division will miss the playoffs, but that is exactly what I am predicting. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can only do so much. My belief that these two players can put the team on their shoulders to make them competitive is the only reason I think they will be better than the Jets. The rest of Edmonton’s roster is less than impressive, unfortunately.
Up front, the Oilers lack depth outside of McDavid, himself, and the Draisaitl line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamamoto. Those 4 players will be playing big minutes and need to produce at clips similar to last year to keep Edmonton competitive. I do think this core four forwards, along with new addition Tyson Barrie on defense, could get hot for a long enough stretch to make the playoffs, but the lack of depth will show over time.
Also, goaltending was not Edmonton’s strong suit last year, and they did not address the issue in the offseason. The Oilers will continue to roll with the due of Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith. They will need to score their way to success, which while possible, seems unlikely to be sustainable.
Player to Watch: Tyson Barrie
Oscar Klefbom, Edmonton’s best defenseman from a year ago, will miss the entire season with an injury. This massive hole will be filled, in part, by the newcomer Barrie. While he is a weaker defensive player than Klefbom, Barrie has a chance to put up elite offensive numbers from the back end. He should get plenty of power play time, playing with the Oilers’ high-end forwards, making it look like a great fit. Barrie signed a one-year deal, so having a great year will not only benefit the team, but it should set him up nicely for free agency next summer.
4. Montreal Canadiens
Looking to build off of an upset of the Pittsburgh Penguins in last summer’s Stanley Cup Qualifiers, Montreal comes into this season primed to make a run at a playoff berth. This is not the most complete team in the NHL by a long shot, but a few solid offseason additions should be enough to boost the Canadiens into the playoffs come the spring.
Montreal’s roster looks like one that will be strong defensively, based on depth both on the blue line and in goal. Joel Edmundson has been added to a defense corps that already included Shea Weber and Jeff Petry, and Jake Allen was brought in to back up Carey Price. The Canadiens will be able to keep Price fresh throughout this compressed schedule, while not having to be concerned with a major drop-off in performance when Allen takes the net.
The biggest issue, in my opinion, with the Montreal roster has not changed in years- the center position. The team can have as many talented wingers, defensemen, and goaltenders as they want; without talent and depth “down the middle”, it is nearly impossible to win in this league. As I said, this is not a new problem for the Canadiens, making their decision to trade Max Domi to Columbus confusing. Getting back Josh Anderson and signing him to a long-term deal is not a bad move, but it doesn’t address their glaring need. I suspect they will play a lot of low-scoring games, but their lack of offensive talent, specifically at center, will eventually be their downfall.
Player to Watch: Jesperi Kotkaniemi
This could be the first big building block down the middle in Montreal. The 3rd overall pick in the 2018 draft has the best chance of anyone on this roster to develop into a first, or at least high-end second, line center. He has shown flashes of strong play, but he has also been very inconsistent, so much so he was sent to the AHL for a portion of last season. His performance in the Toronto bubble during the play gave reason to believe he still has a chance to become a true impact player in the NHL, and Montreal hopes that comes as soon as this season.
3. Calgary Flames
The Flames have been a consistently solid team over the past few years, and I expect the same this year. They are good, but in a way that can be hard to describe. They don’t have loads of elite offensive talent and they lost a top-four defenseman in free agency. I think of them as a team where the whole is often greater than the sum of the parts. They play better than their roster may lead people to expect.
The biggest need in Calgary this offseason was in goal, so they went ahead and signed the top goaltender to hit the free agent market. Jacob Markström is a sizeable improvement over both Cam Talbot and David Rittich, who will remain with the Flames as their backup. Adding goaltending to a team that was in the hunt for the playoffs last season, combined with the divisional realignment, should create an ideal path to the postseason for Calgary.
Player to Watch: Johnny Gaudreau
Coming off a 2018-2019 season with 99 points, many thought Gaudreau had established himself as one of the truly elite scorers in the NHL. Unfortunately, both for him and the Flames, he didn’t come close to replicating that greatness last season. He recorded only 58 points in 70 games, which, while not bad by any means, simply didn’t meet expectations. Considering, as I mentioned before, the Flames aren’t the league’s most talented team, they rely on Gaudreau to not only produce, but produce at a high clip. If he can get back to a level close to that of a couple seasons ago, the Flames could be primed to make a run at the North division title.
2. Vancouver Canucks
After showing much improvement and becoming a playoff team last season, Vancouver won’t be surprising any hockey fans this year. This is a very good team filled with young talent that is going to be in playoff contention, and possibly more, for years to come. They don’t have the best salary cap situation moving forward, making this year as good as any for them to make a run toward the Stanley Cup.
Led by budding superstar Elias Pettersson and pure goal-scorer Brock Boeser, the Canucks have their entire top-six forward group returning, as well as their whole first unit of the league’s fourth ranked power play from last season. Offense surely won’t be a problem in Vancouver. The Canucks also made one of my favorite acquisitions of the offseason when they acquired Nate Schmidt from the Vegas Golden Knights, who were looking to move salary. Bringing in Schmidt, who is a very strong top-four defenseman signed to a long-term deal, gives them more depth behind one of the best young players in the league, Quinn Hughes.
After losing Jacob Markström to the Calgary Flames in free agency, it became clear the future in the Vancouver goal is Thatcher Demko. However, the future does not have to be the present. He played very well in the playoffs, but he is still a young goaltender. This is why signing Braden Holtby makes a lot of sense for the Canucks, as the two can split starts, assuming Holtby regains the form he is known for. Even if Demko becomes the true number one, Holtby being there to mentor him will be very helpful.
Player to Watch: Quinn Hughes
Hughes finished second in Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year) voting for the 2019-20 season after recording 53 points in 68 games while averaging nearly 22 minutes per night. Hughes exemplifies the future of the defense position in the National Hockey League. He is an excellent skater who makes a great first pass out of the defensive zone with a high hockey IQ. He will likely continue to grow into a larger role and take on more minutes, in addition to continuing his role on the first power play unit. Hughes is going to be one of the top defensemen in this league for a long time, making his growth this season worth watching.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs
No team, in my opinion, benefits more from the divisional realignment than the Toronto Maple Leafs. In the traditional Atlantic division, the Leafs would still have to contend with the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Boston Bruins, who have served as a roadblock between Toronto and the Stanley Cup for years. In this new North division, they look like the team to beat.
Toronto has the most talented group of skaters in the division, and should have no problems scoring goals. With one of the best core groups of forwards in the NHL, consisting of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, this team will be able to win games on any given night.
The Leafs have a very solid goaltender in Frederik Anderson and, while he isn’t the best netminder in the division, or the second-best in my opinion, he has not been their problem in the past. The issue has been the defense in front of him. The defense group in Toronto still doesn’t jump out as a strength, but it does look improved. Morgan Reilly has been their most consistent performer on the back end, and they Jake Muzzin returning as well. Adding T.J. Brodie creates more depth to go along with young players Travis Dermott and Rasmus Sandin, who are expected to improve as they get more experience in the league.
Overall, this is a solid roster, with talent, experience, and youthful exuberance that could create a dangerous combination heading into the playoffs. Toronto should be expected to win this division; now, its up to the players to get the job done.
Player to Watch: Mitch Marner
I am a big believer in the idea that elite centermen are a necessity for teams that have championship aspirations, and Toronto has two in Matthews and Tavares. However, when I watch this team play, Marner always stands out. He drives offense, is responsible defensively, plays on both the power play and penalty kill, and is often on the ice when protecting a late lead. Simply put, he is an elite all-around player. He will put up great offensive numbers again, and he will continue to make plays in the defensive end that are just as important. He is the type of player that wins championships, and if the Leafs make a deep postseason run, don’t be surprised if Marner is driving the bus.
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